# Market Radar sample 001

**For:** technical solo founders and AI-capable operators choosing what to sell  
**As of:** 2026-08-24  
**Purpose:** show what a ProofSprint evidence packet looks like. This is not a promise that any opportunity will sell.

## Executive decision

Keep **ProofSprint** as the primary paid test. Use **Market Radar** as the worked sample and possible recurring layer. Do not divert the launch window into a generic template bundle or an unverified dental-practice offer.

## Signal 1 — distribution pain is more credible than “AI makes products fast”

- **Observed fact:** a captured 321-vote audience poll identified promotion as the largest reported digital-product difficulty.
- **Evidence class:** observable market / audience poll.
- **Reference:** Telegram archive messages 467–469, dated 2026-02-13 through 2026-02-17.
- **Independent support:** the supplied course treats qualified external clicks and downstream action as stronger learning signals than views (`Radar ext_950d07f`, reviewed 2026-08-24).
- **What this does not prove:** those voters are not verified ProofSprint buyers, and no willingness to pay is established.
- **Decision change:** lead the offer with a measurable paid-intent experiment and stop rule, not faster content generation.

## Signal 2 — weekly research is recurring work, but freshness has a real cost

- **Observed fact:** the verified archive repeatedly describes reviewing niches, offers, keywords, creatives, competitors, and funnels as a weekly operating habit.
- **Evidence class:** seller/creator assertion; receives zero buyer-demand credit.
- **References:** Telegram messages 47, 73, 209, 263–265, 334, 388–389, 498–500, and 653.
- **What this does not prove:** the workflow's revenue claims, buyer value, subscription retention, or Steve's future operator time.
- **Decision change:** include one source-grounded sample now; launch the $29 recurring layer only after the $99 offer converts and the weekly workload is measured.

## Signal 3 — generic templates fail the substitution test

- **Observed fact:** active marketplace examples establish supply for Canva and operational templates, while sales figures in the archive remain channel-reported estimates.
- **Evidence class:** partially verified observable listings plus seller claims.
- **References:** Telegram messages 99, 195, 280, 450, and 458; course research source `Radar ext_b15511b`.
- **What this does not prove:** demand for a new VPA template, attainable ranking, conversion, or positive margin.
- **Decision change:** do not sell blank templates. Sell the evidence ledger, gated decision, experiment design, and accumulated learning workflow.

## Ranked test cells

| Candidate | Evidence-adjusted score | Scorer gate | Cheapest next proof |
|---|---:|---|---|
| Market Radar | 7.24/10 | REVISE | Include this sample in ProofSprint and measure sample-to-checkout intent |
| Dental activity kit | 4.64/10 | REVISE | Five qualified practice conversations before creating the full kit |
| Operational templates | 5.02/10 | REVISE | No test until redesigned around a non-generic workflow moat |

## Recommended 48-hour experiment

- **Audience:** technical solo founders with a working prototype or product idea but no paid validation.
- **Offer:** $99 ProofSprint founding beta.
- **Channel:** approval-gated VPA Threads posts to the VPA landing page; no paid spend.
- **Primary metric:** paid order.
- **Secondary metrics:** qualified visits, sample opens, checkout starts, and price-qualified replies.
- **Pass:** at least one paid order, or three independent checkout starts/price-qualified intents inside the first 100 qualified visits.
- **Kill/reposition:** zero paid order after 100 qualified visits or two proper approved tests.
- **Do not count:** impressions, likes, follower growth, generic encouragement, or creator revenue claims.

## Source and claims QA

Every statement above is labeled as observed evidence, seller claim, or assumption. No income, speed, customer-count, or guaranteed-outcome claim is made. No third-party media or copied product asset is included.